By Ahmad Shuaibu Isa
It is undeniably valid to assert that the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its broader shifts in foreign policy yield profound consequences, extending beyond the Middle East and international relations to serious African nations.
As an emerging power in Africa, to what extent could Nigeria move if the country is particularly susceptible to the influences of the global political landscape?
The repercussions of U.S. actions, such as exiting multilateral agreements, resonate far deeper than just the confines of Iran or Europe. Nevertheless, Nigeria’s context introduces a unique layer of complexity that must include the influence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and religious groups, such as the Islamic movement, Muslim society organizations, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), and various civil society organizations (CSOs).
In the realm of Nigeria’s foreign policy and geopolitical strategy, the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 has potentially fostered a climate of instability and mistrust, particularly regarding the reliability of international agreements. As Nigeria seeks stability, growth, and a prominent role in both African and global diplomacy, it may be compelled to reassess its alliances with global superpowers, including the U.S. The shifting global dynamics could galvanize Nigeria to diversify its international relationships, forging stronger ties with nations like China, Russia, and certain European states within the European Union, which are frequently perceived as more committed to multilateral diplomacy.
Nigeria’s proactive engagement in the African Union (AU) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is likely to catalyze greater regional cooperation. This departure from reliance on Western powers towards more stable international partnerships reflects a burgeoning skepticism toward U.S. policies, especially in light of the JCPOA fallout. Should Nigeria view the U.S. as erratic, it may be driven to pursue stronger multilateral alliances, seeking to distance itself from American influence.
Economically, as one of Africa’s leading oil producers, Nigeria is intricately linked to global oil markets, which are influenced by events in the Middle East. U.S. sanctions on Iran and the subsequent decline in Iranian oil exports have precipitated fluctuations in global oil prices. Although Nigeria may realize short-term gains from increased oil prices, the long-term instability stemming from U.S. foreign policy actions could jeopardize its economy. The volatility of the global oil market, shaped by U.S. actions, threatens to destabilize Nigeria’s oil revenues and engender economic uncertainty.
Additionally, as Africa’s relationship with China strengthens, Nigeria may reevaluate its dependence on U.S. foreign aid and trade. More predictable policies from other nations could render them more desirable for investment, as businesses generally favor stable environments.
Religious and civil society groups are increasingly influential in shaping Nigeria’s response to global developments. Iran’s connections with global Muslim communities, including those within Nigeria, could resonate with certain Nigeria citizens, particularly the Muslim communities that care about the oppressed people across the globe , which perceives US government policies as adversarial, often harmful to developing states.
These groups may call for enhanced ties with countries like Iran, which resist Western influence. Conversely, the Christian community, represented by organizations such as CAN, might interpret these dynamics through the lenses of human rights, religious freedom, and national sovereignty, urging Nigeria to uphold an independent foreign policy that avoids entanglement in disputes that could escalate religious tensions. Sufi groups and other Islamic CSOs might adopt a more moderate approach, focusing on promoting peace and interfaith dialogue.
Non-governmental organizations and civil society organizations (CSOs) are poised to play a critical role in steering Nigeria’s foreign policy, advocating for adherence to multilateral diplomacy, promoting transparency, and enhancing public understanding of the implications of U.S. actions, including the withdrawal from the JCPOA.
The contrasting perspectives articulated by Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and Hamas illuminate the complexities of Middle Eastern diplomacy. Khamenei’s staunch refusal to engage in talks with the U.S.—rooted in past failures and the reimposition of sanctions—underscores Iran’s defensive and cautious stance toward negotiations. In contrast, Hamas’ recent hostage exchanges with Israel reveal a pragmatic, transactional approach to diplomacy, where concrete actions such as prisoner swaps are utilized to maintain fragile peace and cultivate trust. These divergent strategies exemplify the delicate balance between diplomacy and mistrust in the region.
Ultimately, the geopolitical shifts instigated by U.S. actions, including the JCPOA withdrawal, resonate across the globe, impacting nations. As a key player in Africa, Nigeria’s foreign policy, economic stability, and internal cohesion are all shaped by many dynamics. The nation’s religious communities and civil society organizations will serve as vital influencers in guiding public opinion and orchestrating Nigeria’s response to these evolving global realities. Whether Nigeria aligns with the U.S., seeks closer ties with emerging powers like China and Russia, or pursues a more neutral diplomatic stance, its evolving strategies will significantly dictate its future role on the international stage.
In wisdom’s depth, Khamenei stands,
Guiding through turbulent, shifting sands,
A voice of strength with steady hands.
Ahmad Shuaibu Isa